San Diego home inventory challenges

San Diego County Housing Summary

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• The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 65 homes, up 2%, and now sits at 2,731. In August, 48% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 2,408 less. Last year, there were 4,338 homes on the market, 1,607 more homes, or 59% more. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 7,074, or 159% more.

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• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 35 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 2%, and now totals 1,577. It was the lowest September reading since tracking began in 2012. Last year, there were 2,078 pending sales, 32% more than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 3,031, or 92% more.

• With demand falling and supply rising a bit, the Expected Market Time (the number of days to sell all San Diego County listings at the current buying pace) increased from 50 to 52 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year the Expected Market Time was 63 days, slower than today. The 3-year average before COVID was 71 days, also slower than today.

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• For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market Time decreased from 35 to 34 days. This range represents 26% of the active inventory and 40% of demand.

• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 36 to 45 days. This range represents 22% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.

• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 40 to 42 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 11% of demand. For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 56 to 65 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 8% of demand.

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• For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks decreased from 75 to 73 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 109 to 93 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 299 to 316 days.

• The luxury end, all homes above $1.5 million, account for 34% of the inventory and 17% of demand.

• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.5% of all listings and 0.4% of demand. Only four foreclosures and ten short sales are available today in San Diego County, with 14 total distressed homes on the active market, the same as two weeks ago. Last year there were 17 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.

• There were 2,149 closed residential resales in August, 16% less than August 2022’s 2,568 closed sales. August marked a 5% increase compared to July 2023. The sales-to-list price ratio was 100.8% for all of San Diego County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.5% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.4%. That means that 99.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity. Have a great week. Sincerely, Steven Thomas Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences Copyright 2023- Steven Thomas, Reports On Housing - All Rights Reserved.

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